Pokemon Scarlet & Violet go Brrr in a Bull Market. Is it worth it to Buy and will it Crash?

If you have followed the recent news regarding the new Pokemon Scarlet & Violet releases, then you know the new Pokemon sets are in high demand. 

Scarlet & Violet’s 151 set is filled with the original 151 Pokemon but with art styles that are fantastic and unique. 

For example, this is the new Charizard card. This is an art style that is different than the original art of the Base Set that I grew up with and loved.

So what’s the problem?

If you’re a collector like me who doesn’t prefer to flip cards or sell the hottest new product, you may find it difficult to find new SV: 151 products. You can buy the sets over at tcgplayer.com for reasonable prices but they will not be MSRP. 

I have searched countless stores to purchase a SV: 151 poster box or booster packs at MSRP and let me tell you, it is barren out there. This doesn’t mean you can’t find them. You will need to be extra diligent and early if you want to pay the normal price for the product.

If you enjoy the hunt of sealed product, then go for it!

Examining the trends

Lets look at the historical data for Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151:

We see the historical pricing of a Scarlet & Violet 151 booster bundle (6 booster packs) and we notice a few basic trends.

1. There was a price decrease when there was enough supply to meet the demand. 
2. The price has gone up 100% a year after the set was introduced in 2023. 

Now there are rumors of a SV: 151 reprint for the U.S. on the horizon but this hasn’t been confirmed by The Pokemon Company. However, there is a new product of SV: 151 called Blooming Waters that will include several booster packs as well as some promo cards. Blooming Waters is slotted to come out in 2025. This is good news for investors and collectors alike. The issue is if there isn’t enough supply to meet the demand, expect mass amounts of scalping and fomo-ing into this product which will more than likely induce, short term price increases, mid term price flattening, and long term/slow price increases. 

Scarlet & Violet 151 will be reprinted in Japan and this has been confirmed. Currently the price of a SV2a (Scarlet & Violet 151 Japanese Set) Booster box is around $105 according to ebay. A reprint of the Japanese set may tank the market on this product but the Japanese reprint probably won’t effect its english counterpart. 

If we look at the sales trends according to ebay.com on the SV2a booster box, we find that the market has moved up and down on the sets but not in violent swings.

What does this mean going forward?

If I were to give myself advice, I would collect the SV: 151 sets and rip as many as I could because I enjoy opening Pokemon packs and collecting cards. 

SV: 151 will have a price drawback at some point but probably not to all time lows. SV: 151 may even “crash”. 

While we can only speculate on what the market is going to do, it is evident that sought after sets will always be sought after. If you look at the price action of Pokemon X&Y and Sun & Moon, you will see that these sets increased in price over time. 

While using older Pokemon sets as an example, I may never be able to find SV: 151 for MSRP again but I would rather buy it for slightly above MSRP than wait 5 years and be priced out of the product entirely.

Hopefully people who are seeking to collect all 151 cards can do so. It is unfair that scalpers take their opportunities, sell the cards, exit the market, and then repeat the process every popular set but that allowed in a free market. 

Remember, this isn’t financial advice.